Fertility Decline in India: Disentangling Between Cohort Effects and Period Paramount

Milan Das, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Octavio Bramajo, Centre d'estudis Demogràfics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

This study explores the roles of age, period, and cohort effects on India's fertility trends between 1960 and 2018. We utilized five waves of the Indian National Family Health Surveys to estimate incomplete period fertility rates (1960 to 2018) and cohort fertility rates (1943 to 1979) across the socioeconomic spectrum. Using age-period-cohort (APC) methods, we examined fertility trends on Lexis surfaces. Our results indicate that during the 1970s and 1980s, fertility changes in India were primarily driven by period-specific trends. Furthermore, cohort and period-specific factors appear to interact, explaining differences in childbirth across socioeconomic variables such as education, religion, caste, and residence. The nonlinear cohort effects suggest shifts in female reproductive behaviour, potentially driven by political, cultural, or socioeconomic factors that affect cohorts differently. Understanding these nuances is crucial for addressing India’s reproductive health dynamics and making informed policy decisions.

Keywords: Fertility, Data visualisation , Families, Unions and Households

See paper.