Modeling Empowerment, Intention, and Fertility Impacts of a New Contraceptive Technology: A Case Study Using Depo-Medroxyprogesterone Acetate Subcutaneous in Kenya

Marita Zimmermann, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Emily Driano, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Paula Sanz-Leon, Aix-Marseille University
Robyn Stuart, University of NSW
Michelle O'Brien, Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Contraceptive technologies not only affect fertility but also influence women’s empowerment. Depo-Medroxyprogesterone Acetate Subcutaneous (DMPA-SC), designed for self-injection, aims to improve access to contraception by reducing dependency on healthcare providers. The study enhances the Family Planning Simulator (FPsim), an agent-based model, to simulate contraceptive use and empowerment outcomes. Data from the Kenya Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) survey, which includes information on fertility intentions and empowerment metrics, were used to parameterize the model. Empowerment is measured through economic and social indicators such as decision-making autonomy and labor force participation. The study models various scenarios for scaling up both 3-month and 6-month DMPA-SC and projects their impacts on modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR) and women’s empowerment. These findings provide insights into how improved access to contraception can influence both fertility outcomes and broader socio-economic empowerment in low-resource settings.

Keywords: Data and Methods, Family Planning and Contraception, Computational social science methods, Human Capital, Education, and Work

See extended abstract.