Longevity Improvement and Mortality Compression: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Ousmane FAYE, Laboratoire D'analyse Economique Et Monétaire (larem), Université C. A. Diop (UCAD), Dakar

This study explores trends in longevity improvement and mortality compression in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2017, using life table data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Longevity improvement refers to the increase in life expectancy, while mortality compression examines whether deaths are becoming more concentrated at older ages, reflecting demographic shifts. The study investigates three key questions: (1) whether there is a reduction in the variability of age at death alongside a shift in the age of deaths to older ages, (2) how changes in causes of death, such as infectious and non-communicable diseases, have impacted these trends, and (3) the implications for future mortality forecasts in the region. Robustness checks, including sensitivity analysis and the use of alternative mortality compression indicators (e.g., Gini coefficient, Keyfitz’s H), will ensure the findings’ reliability. Additionally, the study addresses potential biases due to data quality variations across countries. By providing insights into mortality trends and demographic transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa, this research will contribute to policy discussions on improving life expectancy and managing aging populations in the region.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Health and Morbidity, Population Ageing, Decomposition analysis

See extended abstract.