Power Dynamics, Spatialities of Missing Females and the Discourse of Violence in Indian Subcontinent - Insights from Event Big Data

Purbash Nayak, not yet employed
Suddhasil Siddhanta, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics

We study bigdata of conflicting events from 2016-19 in the Indian subcontinent and find that 1 female missing for every 10 males jointly increases the probability of continuation as well as the chance of escalation of any conflict by 10% (approx). We also find that Missing Females significantly intensifies the conflict. Further, Aggressive Social Behaviour in any locality is spatially linked to the degree of Missing Females. Further we develop a nuanced methodology to demonstrate that the mechanism underlying this link – Missing Females and violence is contextual; it depends on the context of power dynamics in the locality. The effect is highest in localities where discourse of conflict is polarized between specific sub-groups. Also, instrumenting of excess-males for violence is a feature of society strictly where some specific identifiable sub-groups are targeted. In clusters where the norm is territoriality the underlying variable explaining both violence and missing females is prosperity effect – the lust for status. However, one dominant effect that explains the causal link globally is due to the character of the society itself, particularly related to lowering of resistance against what is morally wrong – legitimising sex selection, legitimising violence.

Keywords: Neighbourhood/contextual effect analysis, Econometrics , Big data, Spatial Demography

See extended abstract.