Global Uncertainties and Fertility Intentions

Gerda Ruth R. Neyer, Stockholm University
Livia Olah, Stockholm University

Since the 2010s, many of the industrialized countries around the globe have encountered falling fertility rates, partly to the lowest levels ever recorded. The decline occurred irrespective of economic conditions, family support or level of gender equality in a country. Researchers therefore assumed that perception of economic and other uncertainties lies behind this fertility decline. Based on theories of post-modern societies as “world risks societies” we investigate to what extent perceptions of and worries about global uncertainties are associated with fertility intentions in Sweden. We use data of the Swedish Generations and Gender Survey of 2021 (GGS2021) which contained a module specifically geared to capture respondents’ worries about global uncertainties. The quantitative analysis is complemented by qualitative interviews carried out in 2022 with participants in the GGS2021 to explore in-depth how and in which way global uncertainties affect their considerations to have a(nother) child. Analyses of the GGS2021 reveal no clear picture about the link between global risks and fertility intentions. The qualitative interviews reveal that different temporal, spatial, and political aspects of uncertainty play a role in people’s childbearing intentions. We embed these findings into a new theory on risks, uncertainties and fertility considerations in recent global fertility development.

Keywords: Fertility, Comparative methods , Mixed methods research

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