Trends and Patterns in Ideal Family Size in Nigeria: Lessons from Nigeria’s Demographic and Health Surveys in the 21st Century

Michael Kunnuji, University of Lagos
Idongesit Eshiet, University of Lagos

Nigeria's rapid population growth threatens her ability to ensure decent living standards for the citizens. Homelessness and a huge out-of-school population are common signs that many people have more children than they or the government can provide for. To inform evidence-based policies and programs, this study examines the dynamics of ideal family size in Nigeria from 2003 to 2023. Using data from five rounds of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), we analyze responses from men and women to investigate variations in ideal family size over time and across regions. Our analytical methodology includes calculating mean ideal family sizes for Nigeria’s regions, conducting one-way ANOVA to compare regional differences, and repeated measures ANOVA to assess temporal changes within regions. We also employ regression modeling to predict ideal family size, accounting for survey year, region, education, age, and urban/rural residence. This study provides critical insights into how ideal family size has evolved in Nigeria, informing context-specific policy and programmatic interventions to support sustainable population growth and improved well-being.

Keywords: Fertility, Gender Dynamics, Population Policies, Multi-level modeling

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