Unlocking Fertility: What Prevents Young Adults in Poland from Having (More) Children? Evidence from a Factorial Survey Experiment

Anna Kurowska, Univeristy of Warsaw
Magdalena Grabowska, University of Warsaw
Anna Matysiak, University of Warsaw

Europe experienced a shift towards smaller family sizes starting in the second half of the 20th century, with a brief stabilization in the 2000s, followed by a continued decline in the 2010s. Past research indicated several socio-economic and institutional factors behind this fertility decline. To date, however, no clear consensus has emerged regarding their relative importance. This study seeks to address this gap by employing an innovative approach—a factorial survey experiment. It uses a sample of 20-30-year-olds, exploring differences in fertility intentions between childless individuals and parents of one child. Our focus is on Poland where TFR hit the record low level of 1.5 in 2023. We examine the relative importance of the potentially most crucial drivers of fertility decline, such as job stability, housing availability, childcare access, fathers’ involvement in childcare, and worries about climate change. In addition, we incorporate one country-specific factor which is the tightening of the abortion law in case of a fetus defect. Our findings are expected to provide insights into broader European trends and the proposed method can be applied in other settings, potentially offering a deeper understanding of fertility decline in Europe.

Keywords: Fertility, Data and Methods, Population Policies

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