Age- and Cause-Specific Contributions to the Increase in High Life Expectancy

Siying Lyu, Peking University
Guillaume Marois, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Chunyong Chen, University of Pennsylvania
Zixin Zhou, Peking University

The trend of life expectancy from 1950 to 2019 reveals a gradual slowdown as countries reach higher ranges. While optimistic projections suggest continued increases in life expectancy, the exact path and magnitude of these increases remain uncertain. This study explores the mortality patterns driving high life expectancy, focusing on changes in age- and cause-specific mortality. It finds that reductions in elderly mortality, particularly from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), remain the primary factor driving life expectancy growth. While countries like Singapore and South Korea, which achieved high life expectancy quickly, did so through evenly distributed reductions across multiple causes of death. In contrast, regions heavily reliant on CVD reductions, particularly aging populations, experience slower progress. Although the study does not determine an upper limit for life expectancy, it highlights that stagnation in high life expectancy countries is due to slower declines in certain disease mortalities rather than a fixed ceiling. Rapid gains are more likely to be achieved through reductions in multiple causes than by focusing on CVD alone.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Mathematical demography , Population Ageing, Comparative methods

See paper.