Contextualizing Mortality: Trends in Adult Mortality During the 21st Century

Debasis Barik, National Council for Applied Economic Research
Bijay Chouhan, National Council of Applied Economic Research
Sonalde B. Desai, University of Maryland

Prior research on mortality acknowledges the role of socioeconomic status in shaping adult mortality outcomes. Wealthier and educated adults have a higher survival probability than their counterparts. Over the last decade, India has seen a huge expansion of its health insurance coverage to protect the vulnerable and the poor. In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic during the early phase of this decade led to large-scale health calamities, particularly virulent impacts on urban India. Under these circumstances, using three waves of the India Human Development Survey data, we explore if the same sets of SES covariates were equally effective in protecting adult deaths as they were before. We use multivariate logistic regression models, including clustering at the PSU level, to see the changes. Results suggest that even though the direction was more or less the same, the effect size was different. For example, the effect of owning many assets for adult death was negative in both IHDS 2 and 3, but the magnitude has declined. In contrast, individual education levels were more effective than before. Adults, residing in urban areas, females, and those suffering from chronic illnesses like high blood pressure, cardiac conditions, or diabetes, were more vulnerable to death than before.

Keywords: Longitudinal studies , Mortality and Longevity, Population, Shocks and Pandemics

See extended abstract.