To Move or Stay?: Migration Intentions amid Conflict and Climate Change

Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna
Jacopo Bassetto, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan
Christoph Deuster, European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Simone Ghislandi, Università Bocconi
Roman Hoffmann, International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
William Kemp, Università di Bologna

It is estimated that in 2023, 14% of the world population were residing within five kilometres of conflict or civil protest. Moreover, many conflict-affected regions, particularly in the Sahel, North Africa, and the Middle East, are situated in semi-arid or arid areas, where climatic shocks further exacerbate insecurities and fuel disputes over scarce resources. The combined impact of climate and conflict presents a compound risk disrupting livelihoods and well-being and can either spur or suppress migration depending on the intensity and individuals’ capacity to migrate. However, existing literature examining the joint influence of climate and conflict on migration remains limited. To address this gap, we analyse how exposure to conflict and climatic shocks shapes migration intentions exploiting the quasi-random variation in the local exposure to these events. Migration intentions data obtained from the Arab Barometer (2010-2022) and Gallup surveys (2008-2022) covering 15 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are matched with georeferenced information on climate extremes and conflict occurrence. The preliminary analysis show that migration intentions increase with conflict intensity and positive rainfall shocks. Furthermore, individuals exposed to both conflict and higher precipitation are more likely to report the intention to migrate abroad.

Keywords: International Migration, Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data

See extended abstract.