Re-examining Fertility Trends and Patterns among Black South African Women using Reverse–Survival Method

Ahuejere Leonard, Stats SA

Fertility levels has been declining in South Africa, with no effort made in re-assessing and establishing the validity of existing patterns retrospectively. The census survey data (1996–2016) were used to re–examined (backward project) fertility levels and trends among black South African women. These are secondary cross–sectional data collected at four different points in time in South Africa, using similar methodology. Adopting a quantitative analysis approach, the Reverse–Survival Method (RSM) indirect estimation technique was used. The RSM is a technique appropriate in estimating and tracking temporal changes in fertility patterns retrospectively. The study confirmed that fertility levels were low and declining over the years among the study sample. TFR declined from 4.7 to 2.5, while the GFR declined from 157 to 83 live births (1982–2016). The ASFR (interpolated) also revealed patterns consistent with expectations. Although converging, sub–group differentials revealed fertility rates closer to replacement levels, and seemed to be stalling in the urban areas and less traditional provinces (Gauteng and Western Cape). Internal and external validity checks were also provided by the rate of overlapping periods revealed in the study. The study established the validity of existing patterns, including indicators values. Therefore, re-affirms and contribute to knowledge, crucial to policy developments.

Keywords: Fertility, Qualitative data/methods/approaches, Census data, Population Policies

See extended abstract.