Investigating Short- and Medium-Term Fluctuations in Birth Series and Sex Ratio at Birth in Trentino (1815-1923): a Historical Demographic Analysis Using Baptismal Records and Climatic Data

Rosella Rettaroli, Università di Bologna
Francesco Scalone, Università di Bologna
Nadia Barbieri, University of Bologna
Francesca Tosi, University of Bologna

The analysis of the evolution of interrelations between birth and related sex ratio trends, and climatic, socio-economic, demographic, and cultural variables is a key focus of demographic research, even in historical periods prior to the onset of the demographic transition in fertility. The existence of such relationships serves to illustrate the sensitivity of the reproductive process to climatic and social variations. The debate on the influence of climatic conditions or shocks on the annual number of births and sex ratio remains open, as do discussions on the effects of various geographical and socio-demographic conditions on changes in birth seasonality. Demographic factors such as birth order and isonymy are considered, alongside geographical components such as parish or area, municipality, or altitude, and climatic conditions measured by precipitation intensity and temperature, both in terms of slow climate change evolution and shocks. The monthly historical time series of births by sex in the Trentino region of Italy from 1815 to 1923 allows us to assess the presence and measure the strength of these factors' impact. The analysis will employ time-series models. Fixed effects models will account for municipality and surname-specific characteristics, ensuring that variations attributable to these factors are properly controlled.

Keywords: Historical Demography, Civil Registration and Vital Statistics, Biodemography and genetics, Econometrics

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