Untangling Mortality: The Role of Causes of Death in Shaping Dispersion around the Mode in High-Income Countries

Viorela Diaconu, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova
Virginia Zarulli, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Italy
Stefano Mazzuco, University of Padova

Understanding the dispersion of deaths around the late modal age, M, sheds light on shifts in population health and mortality patterns. This dispersion can be divided into variation before the modal age, SD(M-), and after the modal age, SD(M+). While trends in SD(M+) are well known, changes over time in SD(M-) are less understood. This study aims, first, to document and compare trends in SD(M-) and SD(M+) in several high-income countries since 1960. Second, to examine the role of causes of death in the dispersion of deaths at ages below M over time. To do so, we propose a novel decomposition of temporal differences in SD(M-) into two parts: one due to changes in M and the other due to shifts in the age-at-death distribution. The second part of the proposed decomposition will be analyzed from a cause-of-death perspective to better understand epidemiological transitions at ages below M across countries. Preliminary results show a decline in SD(M-) in all countries included, except for males in the United States and the United Kingdom, with the highest values in Eastern Europe. In contrast to the consistent decline in SD(M+), SD(M-) varies more between sexes and countries.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Data and Methods, Population Ageing, Decomposition analysis

See paper.