New Demographic Measures to Quantify the Housing Squeeze in High-Income Countries

Tom Wilson, Advanced Demographic Modelling
Elin Charles-Edwards, University of Queensland

This study introduces two age-standardised measures to better understand household demography over time and across regions. Despite the central role of households in demographic analysis, they have been underexplored compared to phenomena like fertility and migration. Using census data from Australia, Canada, Ireland, and the United States from the 1970s to 2021, we apply the Age-Standardised Average Household Size (ASAHS) and the Potential Households Ratio (PHR). The ASAHS breaks down average household size into the number of adults and children per household, adjusted for age-specific rates. The PHR compares the potential number of households to actual figures, highlighting whether a "housing squeeze" is occurring. The results show that while household size has generally declined, much of this reduction is explained by changes in population age structure. Trends vary across countries, with the United States showing a marked increase in housing pressure compared to Australia. These measures, simple to calculate and interpret, offer new insights into household dynamics and facilitate more meaningful comparisons of housing trends over time. The study concludes that incorporating age structure is critical for understanding household size trends and suggests these metrics as valuable tools for researchers and policymakers.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Data and Methods, Census data, Population Policies

See extended abstract.