Fertility Trends by Education before and during the Covid-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of European Countries

Marek Endrich, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Philipp Ueffing, European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Marije Zubeldia Razquin, European Commission, Joint Research Centre

Almost five years on, our understanding of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility remains incomplete due to insufficient data, varying responses between and within populations, and limited theoretical explanations. This study examines the impact of the pandemic on fertility in European countries, focusing on the relationship between educational attainment and fertility rates. It uses a recently developed semi-retrospective approach to produce timely estimates of period fertility rates across educational levels from the European Household and Income Survey. It further applies the methodology, for a first time to the authors’ knowledge, to data from the European Labour Force Survey to produce a comparable series of annual fertility rates by level of education for the decade preceding the pandemic up to its first years for European countries. Preliminary findings confirm previous studies showing that the impact of the pandemic varied across countries and educational groups. Further analysis is ongoing to explore the underlying factors influencing these differences, including economic uncertainty, social support, and policy responses. The study seeks to contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between education, fertility, and the COVID-19 pandemic, providing valuable insights for policymakers and researchers.

Keywords: Fertility, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Data and Methods

See extended abstract.