Is Childlessness Increasing in the Southern Cone of Latin America? Evidence from the New round of Censuses

Wanda Cabella, Universidad De La República
Georgina Binstock, Centro de Estudios de Poblacion

During the last decades, Latin American countries converged towards a fertility level close to two children per woman. This is the case in the countries of the Southern Cone, where even ultra-low levels are currently observed. This paper aims to contribute to the knowledge of childlessness in the Southern Cone, regarding its demographic dynamics and social profile. It examines women who reach late reproductive age childless and those who end their reproductive life childless. How do the levels of childlessness differ in the countries of the Southern Cone? Have both the percentage of childless women in their late reproductive years and permanent childlessness increased? What has been the evolution over time of the educational gradient of childlessness in these countries? Using census data from the 2010 and 2020 rounds, we will estimate the level of childlessness at late reproductive ages by country. We will also examine cross-national educational patterns of childlessness by comparing the proportions of childlessness by age and educational group in each country. Preliminary findings for Argentina are compelling, showing a significant delay in both the age at which women have their first child and the proportion who complete their reproductive lives childless.

Keywords: Fertility, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Census data

See extended abstract.