Disruptive Life-Course Events and Reproductive Choices: A Multiprocess Hazard Analysis of Italian Data

Annalisa Donno, University of Padova
Chiara Baldan, RESEARCH FELLOW
Maria-Letizia Tanturri, University of Padua

In recent decades, childlessness has increased sharply across Europe, with Italy experiencing one of the most pronounced rises. The decision to have children is nowadays deeply embedded in a matrix of interconnected life events and circumstances, making it far from straightforward. Employment stability, relationship dynamics, and broader societal transformations are key factors that intersect and significantly influence individuals’ reproductive choices. By focusing on Italy, where traditional patterns for family formation are shifting, our research seeks to explore how key disruptive life events, such as job loss or the breakdown of a relationship, contribute to individuals’ reproductive decisions (specifically, to the decision to have the first child). Using data from the 2016 Italian Multipurpose Household Survey, we employ multi-process hazard models to jointly analyse employment, union histories, and fertility, while accounting for unobserved factors that simultaneously shape these trajectories, thus offering a clearer understanding of the decision-making process behind childbearing. Our results reveal significant gender differences: for women, employment reduces the likelihood of having a first child, while for men, it increases the probability of fatherhood. Union histories also play a critical role: being in a stable relationship, especially marriage, significantly increases the likelihood of parenthood for both sexes.

Keywords: Fertility, Longitudinal studies

See extended abstract.