Population Heterogeneity Under SSPs at the Sub-National Level in India

Samir KC, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
Moradhvaj Dhakad, Center for Development Studies, JNU

India is a subcontinent of significant heterogeneity in terms of demographic and socioeconomic indicators. Population and urbanisation projections are developed nationally through shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Both spatial and socioeconomic population heterogeneity are ignored, resulting in biased future population changes. Applying a multidimensional demographic model, this study tested different alternative assumptions on fertility, mortality, migration, and education transition corresponding to SSP1 (Rapid Development scenario) and SSP4 (Inequality scenario) at the subnational level and compared them with national-level assumptions. Preliminary results show that India's total population size and the trajectories significantly differ between the national and subnational narratives corresponding to SSP1 and SSP4.

Keywords: Population and Development, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Human Capital, Education, and Work

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