Nonmarital Childbearing in the Philippines: Trends and Correlates

Maria Midea Kabamalan, University of the Philippines
John B. Casterline, Ohio State University

Fertility in the Philippines has now fallen below replacement, declining from a TFR around 6.0 (mid-1970s) to around 4.0 (mid-1990s) to 1.9 in the 2022 DHS. A notable and under-studied facet of the Philippine fertility transition is the substantial increase in the share of births that are nonmarital (58 percent in 2022). This corresponds with a sharp increase in cohabitation. The high level of nonmarital childbearing sets the Philippines apart from other Southeast and East Asian countries, and certainly was not anticipated at the onset of fertility decline decades ago. This paper examines the trends and correlates of nonmarital childbearing in the Philippines using DHS 1993 – 2022, and Young Adult Fertility and Sexuality Surveys [YAFS] 2013 and 2021. Preliminary decomposition results indicate that the increase in nonmarital fertility is sharper in urban areas, among women who attained high school education (compared to lower or higher education), and in the middle wealth quintile. With the YAFS we explore attitudes toward marriage and childbearing that motivate the shift toward nonmarital childbearing. We conclude by reflecting on the implications of this notable development. This will constitute the most in-depth analysis to date of the emergence of this prominent feature of Philippine fertility.

Keywords: Fertility, Decomposition analysis

See extended abstract.