The Birth Seasonality of China Since 1960: A Long-Term Shift from Nature Driven to Policy-Driven and Self-Driven

Cuiling Zhang, China Population and development Research Center
Danyin Wang, China Population and Development Research Center
Xuying Zhang, China Population and Development Research Center
Junlei Yuan, China Population and development Research Center

This study focuses on the seasonal fluctuations in China’s births since 1960 by applying the method He and Earn (2007) developed and converted the births for each month in the annual time-series into a percentage of deviation from the monthly mean for a given year [-100, 100]. Traditionally, winter has been the peak season of births while spring and summer as lean seasons, a pattern which is quite different from Europe and the United States. After 1990, the implementation of one-child policy and the wider use of modern contraceptives among Chinese women prompted a fundamental shift in the seasonality of births. People's self-control may serve as a key determinant accounting for such seasonal changes. First births exhibit pronounced and steady seasonality, while second and subsequent births follow a vague seasonal pattern, suggesting that later births are more likely affected by self-choice and self-intervention. The analysis also reveals that the monthly distribution pattern of second births experienced a dramatic change following the roll-out of the selective-two-child policy and the Universal Two-child Policy in 2014 and 2016, reflecting the adjustments of people made to achieve their fertility plans within the new policy context.

Keywords: Civil Registration and Vital Statistics, Family Planning and Contraception, Fertility, Population Policies

See paper.