Integrating Demographic and Epidemiological Transitions into Climate Impact Projections: A Case Study in Antananarivo.

Emmanuelle Kuijt, European Doctoral School of Demography
Bruno Masquelier, Louvain University (UCL)

Background: The well-documented impact of global warming on human health highlights the urgent need to examine its effects on the most vulnerable populations. However, there is a notable lack of studies in highly vulnerable regions, such as Low- and Lower-Middle Income Countries (LLMICs), raising methodological concerns about applying models developed in different epidemiological and demographic contexts. Methods: Using death notification data from Antananarivo (1990–2023) alongside mean daily temperature records, we aim to quantify the relationship between non-optimal temperatures and mortality using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model. The analysis will be conducted across various age groups and for different causes of death, enabling us to examine age and cause-specific differences in the temperature-mortality relationship. Additionally, by incorporating population projections and different climate scenarios, we aim to assess how future changes in population structure and climate may impact projected mortality related to climate change. Other parameters such as seasonal trends will be accounted for within the model to ensure accuracy. Preliminary results : Initial findings show significant disparities in how temperature fluctuations impact mortality across different age groups. Projections indicate that both demographic changes (such as population aging) and rising temperatures will contribute substantially to increased mortality linked to non-optimal temperatures.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Mortality and Longevity, Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

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