Youth Hubs: Do They Strengthen Competition and Survival, or a Rebound in Birth Rates?

Hye-eun Oh, Seoul National University
Youngtae Cho, Seoul National University
Woorim Ko, Seoul National University
Doyoon Kim, Seoul National University

This study aims to analyze the impact of the size and movement of the youth population (aged 20 to 39) on birth rates in South Korea. Based on data from two periods, 2012-2014 and 2021-2023, the analysis focuses on 204 regions, excluding Seoul, and examines the proportion of the youth population and birth rates. Using K-Means clustering, five groups were identified, and the performance was evaluated using Silhouette Score, DBI, and CHI metrics. Regression analysis revealed that while the youth population proportion positively influenced birth rates, the effect has decreased over time. Additionally, mapping the clustering results over both periods allowed for a clearer understanding of the relationship between regional population shifts and birth rates. This study provides essential data for formulating policy responses to address South Korea’s declining birth rates.

Keywords: Fertility, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Data visualisation , Internal Migration and Urbanization

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