Climate change, environmental shocks, and fertility: Global evidence from low- and middle-income countries

Côme Cheritel, Paris School of Economics
Roman Hoffmann, International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna

Climate change affects communities worldwide with implications for livelihoods, human security, and health and well-being. These can also have impacts on reproductive behaviors and fertility which have not been comprehensively understood at the global level. Building on detailed Demographic and Health Survey data, we provide comparative evidence on the impacts of climatic shocks on fertility worldwide at the subnational level. Our longitudinal database (1980 to 2015) covers monthly fertility levels for 590 regions in 65 countries, representing 3.8 billion individuals today. Combining the population data with high-resolution climate data on temperature and precipitation anomalies, we find a nuanced impact of climatic factors on fertility. Temperature anomalies and negative precipitation anomalies occurring approximately nine months prior are found to significantly reduce fertility, as do temperature shocks close to prospective birth dates. Women in less developed regions and those with lower education levels are particularly vulnerable to these changes, revealing stark inequalities in the impact of climate change on global fertility. Our results furthermore suggest the presence of rebound effects, with fertility increasing in the years following a shock, possibly due to postponement effects. Our results highlight the need to consider climatic factors and differential vulnerabilities in family planning and health policies.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Fertility, Data and Methods, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data

See extended abstract.