Identifying Change in Spatiotemporal Patterns of China’s Internal Migration and Associated Mechanisms since 2010

Yan Tan, the University of Adelaide
Qiang Ren, Peking University

China’s internal migration poses significant demographic and policy challenges. The Chinese government heavily regulates Chinese mobility. The largest internal migration of modern times is now conceptualised as not only circular but iterative and highly diversified – an epochal transition from simpler rural–urban and inland–coastal migration. Increased urban settlement, inter- and intra-urban movements, and return migration (mainly back from coastal areas) are the new norms. Probing spatio-temporal migration patterns and associated mechanisms since 2010 is needed to deepen our understanding of the future of this transition. Using China’s 2020 and 2010 micro census data, this study advances our understanding of significant change in mobility in China since 2010, by quantifying the scale and intensity of multi-directional forms of movement (rural–urban, inter– and intra–urban, return, urban settlement) and identifying associations between multilevel factors (individual, household, contextual). Much of our census data analysis focuses on return migration and movement out of the original hukou place and changes in residential location and hukou status over the past 10–15 years. Broad reasons for return, for urban settlement, or circulation, and spatial variations in migrant flow profiles, at provincial, prefectural, and county levels, are identified.

Keywords: Internal Migration and Urbanization, Data and Methods, Census data, Population Policies

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