Deroutinization of Labor and Second Birth in Germany: The Moderating Role of Childcare

Honorata Bogusz, University of Warsaw
Anna Matysiak, University of Warsaw
Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School of Governance

Technological change and globalization have transformed the structure of labor markets in advanced economies, resulting in a cleavage between workers who perform abstract tasks in high demand and routine tasks in low demand. To date, only a few studies have addressed the fertility effects of these long-term changes. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the association between the changing demand for tasks at the regional level and second births, while considering the moderating role of childcare availability. We calculate abstract and routine task intensities using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, which we link to individual fertility and employment histories of women from the German Pension Fund (2 percent random sample). We find that the predicted probabilities of second births are positively related to abstract task intensity at both the occupational and regional levels, and negatively related to routine task intensity. We hypothesize that the availability of childcare might moderate these relationships.

Keywords: Fertility, Economic Demography, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Population Policies

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