The Global Labor Market and the End of World Population Growth

Murray Leibbrandt, University of Cape Town
David Lam, University of Michigan

The world’s working-age population (15-64) is projected to increase from 5.3 billion in 2025 to a peak of 6.3 billion in 2070, with almost all of the additional billion working-age people being added in Africa. This paper uses the latest 2024 UN population projections to look at the demography of the working-age population and its implications for global labor markets. By 2040 Africa will be the only region with a growing working-age population. Africa needs to produce 2 million jobs per month to keep up with the growth of the working-age population. At the same time, the working-age population of Asia is projected to decline by over 1 million per month by 2050. A critical question is whether jobs being freed up in Asia can be turned into jobs in Africa. We consider the extent to which Africa’s status as the only region with a working-age population may create opportunities for investment and economic growth. We also look at the impact of factors such as the aging of the working-age population, the rising education of African cohorts, urbanization, and the challenge of shifting from informal to formal jobs in African economies.

Keywords: Population and Development, Population Policies, Population Ageing, Human Capital, Education, and Work

See extended abstract.