A New Methodological Approach for Estimating Commuter-Adjusted Population in a Metropolitan Area: The Case of Metropolitan Manila

Nimfa Ogena, University of the Philippines

Estimates of daytime population, also known as commuter-adjusted population, are essential for planning in metropolitan areas. While new technologies such as mobile phones, GPS devices, and location-based services have become available to offer insights into population movements and concentrations during the day, census and surveys that collect detailed data on where people live and work to estimate the daytime population remain important data sources for governments. The proposed new approach for estimating commuter-adjusted population uses multi-exponential logit models on data from the census and a special household survey on commuting. The survey data shall provide information on the socio-demographic characteristics of all household members, commuting day, expected time of departure from origin and expected arrival in destination, reason/s for commuting, city/municipality passed through within the metropolitan region, time segment, for all commuting household members, and reason for commuting. Metropolitan Manila will be used to illustrate how this approach can be applied. This approach can provide estimates on the commuter-adjusted population by city/municipality, day of the week, time segment of a day, and reason for commuting which are generally useful for urban planning and infrastructure, commercial planning, transportation planning, public health, and emergency services, among others.

Keywords: Data and Methods, Census data

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