Fertility Intentions among Russian Migrants - the Role of Shock Conditions

Vladimir Kozlov, Nazarbayev University
Ekaterina Sokolova, Eurasian Technological University
Olga Veselovskaya, Eurasian Technological University
Daria Saitova, Eurasian Technological University

The paper is devoted to the fertility intentions of the migrants from Russia belonging to the recent wave of so called ‘Exodus’ caused by Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in 2022 and its social impact on Russian society. The authors use the disruption hypothesis and predict the drop in fertility intentions of the new-wave Russian migrants in comparison with the old-wave Russian migrants and the stayers, matching and controlling for their socio-economic status. Although a considerable number of the new-wave migrants are in their active reproductive age, partnered and childless, the authors found a strong intention to the fertility postponement and even fertility cancellation among them. The research is based on two on-line surveys organized in 2023 via online social media using snowball method. We plan to include the results of the 2024 surveys As a result, not only lower birth intentions of the new-wave migrants, but also a positive effect of subjective income and willingness to stay in the host country on fertility intentions were observed. In particular, it is obvious for the countries outside the EU (mainly the post-Soviet and Balkan ones). On the other hand, the highest fertility intentions are observed for the EU countries (welfare states).

Keywords: Migrant Populations and Refugees, Fertility, International Migration, Human Capital, Education, and Work

See paper.