Demographic Dividend Perception and Outcome Monitoring Index for Nigeria: Methods and Results

Olanrewaju Olaniyan, University of Ibadan
Akanni Lawanson, University of Ibadan
Noah Olasehinde, University of Ibadan
Oyeteju Odufuwa, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Olabanji Awodumi, University of Ibadan
Temitope Olalude, University of Ibadan
Andat Dasogot, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

Nigeria is largely heterogenous with peculiar population dynamics at national and sub-national levels. Given the differences in governmental efforts to harness the Demographic Dividend (DD) in the country, monitoring its progress becomes imperative. To achieve this, the DD Monitoring Index (DDMI) was developed as a composite index, comprising of both the Perception Index (DDPI) and the Outcome Index (DDOI). The DDPI measures the perception of key stakeholders to the effort of government towards the attainment of the DD, while the DDOI uses standardized indicators of measurement to measure specific outcome indicators on DD activities. The unifying factor of the two indexes is that they both stem from the five (5) thematic pillars of the Nigerian DD Roadmap. Measured with five dimensions, 22 domains and 100 indicators for the DDPI; 96 indicators spread across 16 sub-domains and 24 domains for the DDOI, the findings showed disparities in perception and outcomes. While some perceive government as being productive, the outcome index reveals largely otherwise. In all, the combination of perception and outcome to compute DDMI provides a guide for policymakers to assess achievements obtained, measure progress and detect any deviations recorded in the implementation of Demographic Dividend activities in Nigeria.

Keywords: Population and Development, Data and Methods, Population Policies, Human Capital, Education, and Work

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