Fertility Preferences and Post-Pandemic Decline in Mexico: A Sub-National Analysis of Non-Response Patterns

Ana Ruth Escoto Castillo, UNAM
Ricardo Regules-García, Population Council

reproductive health strategies. This paper addresses the often-overlooked issue of non-response to fertility preference questions, focusing on desired family size and wanting (more) children. By examining the factors that contribute to these non-responses, we aim to gain deeper insights into fertility decision-making and its outcomes. This is particularly relevant in Mexico, a country that has reached fertility replacement level but continues to experience substantial variations in fertility rates across different states and subpopulations, alongside significant shifts in fertility decline following the pandemic. Utilizing multi-level modeling, we will analyze data from Mexico’s National Demographic Dynamic Survey for the years 2016, 2018, and 2023 to identify factors associated with non-response to fertility preference questions. Furthermore, we will explore the determinants of family size preferences and investigate whether they differ from those influencing non-response. Finally, we will examine how fertility preferences may evolve in response to declining fertility at the subnational level.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Family Planning and Contraception, Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights

See extended abstract.