Indonesian Fertility Transition: Analysis and Projections of Fertility Rate by Ethnicity

Ari Purbowati, BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Putu Rima Ayu Padini, BPS Statistics Indonesia
Ikhsan Fahmi, BPS-Statistics Indonesia

Indonesia, a multiethnic nation with population of 275 million people, comprises 1,253 ethnic/sub-ethnic/sub-sub-ethnic, and encompasses 609 distinct ethnic groups. This population figure is dynamic and driven mostly by fertility. Indonesia has witnessed a declining fertility rate from 1971 to 2020, a trend believed to extend to certain ethnic groups, particularly the major ones. Utilizing data from population census/survey, this study estimates the total fertility rates (TFR) and age specific fertility rates (ASFR) for the four largest ethnic groups in Indonesia - the Javanese, Sundanese, Malay, and Batak and provided insightful analysis behind the transitions over the two decades. The results show that TFR among four largest ethnic groups are decline, but some ethnic groups have an increasing proportion of the population, which is suspected to be the result of the increasing ageing proportion. The decline in TFR among the largest ethnic groups emerges as one of the factors driving the nationwide decline in TFR. Furthermore, this paper presents TFR projections from four largest ethnic groups until 2045. The declining trend of TFR among four largest ethnic groups will also continue until 2045. This information can be useful for policy makers in implementing appropriate population-related policies with a local/customary approach.

Keywords: Fertility, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Census data

See paper.