Transition of Cities by City Size Distribution for Different Regions of India Using Markov Chain Model

Mahadevappa Megeri, Professor, Department of Statistics, Karnatak University's Karnatak Science College, Dharwad
Pooja Pagad, Research Scholar, Department of Statistics, Karnatak Science College, Dharwad

The purpose of this study is to analyze transition of cities by city size distribution over time for different regions of India for 1961-2011 by using Markov Chain Model. The data collected for this is from census report. Using Markov Chain Model Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) is obtained and further average time taken to reach class I city from all other class, equilibrium distribution and projected the city different city sizes by using Chapman Kolmogorov equation. Study shows from TPM majority of the cities are retain in the same class for all decades and less than 50% of cities shows forward transition and less than 5 % shows backward transition. The average time to reach Class I from Class VI is 20 decades and for other smaller classes will take less than 20 decades for all the regions of India. All the cities to reach equilibrium or absorption state is 55 decades and three regions - Southern, Eastern and Central regions takes less than Indian average whereas other regions fever than Indian average. Forecasting result shows bigger size cities are increasing. Hence government of India, has to give more budget to create sufficient infrastructural facilities in future.

Keywords: Internal Migration and Urbanization, Census data, Population and Development, Data and Methods

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