Migration and Attractiveness: The Impact of Spatial Variations in Climate and Environmental Change on Destination Choice in an Agro-Ecological Approach in Kenya

Thierry Bédel Tsafack Waba, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS)
Nong Zhu, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS)

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of climatic and environmental changes in the territorial units of origin and destination on migration decisions and the choice of destination by migrants in Kenya, taking into account the agro-ecological specificity of the places of origin and destination. We will use a combination of climate and environmental data from the Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Vegetation Indices (MOD13A3) respectively, and data from the Kenya General Census of Population and Housing conducted in 2019. We will use a multinomial logistic regression model and a conditional logistic regression model to analyze the effect of environmental climate change on the decision to migrate and the choice of destination. Preliminary analyses show that low precipitation and temperature anomalies are generally attractive factors for migration from humid and semi-arid areas. However, this is not the case for migration from arid zones. The results thus show that in Kenya, unlike in the wetlands, socio-economic factors are more attractive than climatic anomalies for migrants from arid zones.

Keywords: Internal Migration and Urbanization, Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Remote sensing, Econometrics

See extended abstract.