Sensitive Analysis of the Budget of Energy, Construction and the Economy Sectors to the Demographic Dividend in Benin

Jean-Baptiste Oga, Université de Parakou
Camille Guidime, Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie et Gestion (LAREG)

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the elasticity of the budget devoted to the Energy/Construction & Economy sectors in relation to the synthetic demographic dividend monitoring index (DDMI) of the same sectors in Benin. To achieve this goal, two types of data were used. On the one hand, administrative data on the Benin’s budget from 2007 to 2020 made it possible to transform the classic budget into a functional budget. Furthermore, data from national surveys, world development indicators from the World Bank, Mo Ibrahim on governance made it possible to calibrate and retropolate the DDMI over the same period. By linking the DDMI to the functional budget, the time series estimates show that a variation of 1% in overall expenditure in the Energy/Construction sector will result in a variation of approximately 0.11% in the level of the DDMI of the same sector. Regarding the promotion of the economy, a 1% increase in the budget leads to an increase in the DDMI of the same sector by 0.08%. Some economic policy implications arise from these results. Capitalizing on the demographic dividend in Benin requires to further develop infrastructure and intensify economic transformation.

Keywords: Population and Development, Economic Demography, Population Policies, Simulation

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