Rising Burden of Non Communicable Diseases in South Asia: A Decomposition Analysis Based on GBD 2021 Data

Jalandhar Pradhan, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study seeks to analyse the incidence, prevalence, death, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) associated with NCDs in South Asian countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan. It also explored the changes in deaths and DALYs due to three major drivers such as population growth, ageing population, and mortality rate. Methods: The study uses data from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study, 2021 and decomposition analysis has been employed to examine the change of death and DALYs attributable to NCDs. Results: The findings reveal a 3% increase in the burden (incidence) of NCDs in South Asia from 2010 to 2021.There has been a notable increase in Diabetes (21%) and Cancer (13%). The results of decomposition analysis shows that population growth and ageing are the major contributing factors to the changing death rate and DALYs due to NCDs in South Asian regions. Conclusion: The findings of the present study can be leveraged to reduce the global burden of NCDs by addressing the associated risk factors in South Asia.

Keywords: Health and Morbidity, Mortality and Longevity, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination, Spatial Demography

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