Enhancing Comparability of Local Population Turnovers

Francesca Bitonti, University of Catania
Daniela Ghio, University of Catania
Angelo Mazza

This paper examines local population change in Italy from 2011-2020 by exploiting standardized metrics: the Population Turnover Rate (PTR) and Migration Share of Turnover (MST). These metrics assess population dynamics by accounting for births, deaths, and migration (both internal and international) across Italian provinces (NUTS-3 level), classified according to the degree of urbanization. The authors apply direct standardization to remove compositional effects tied to varying population structures, facilitating cross-regional comparisons. Results reveal a North-South gradient in turnover rates, with northern provinces showing higher turnover largely driven by internal migration. In contrast, southern provinces experienced slower changes, influenced more by natural demographic shifts, such as births and deaths. The analysis highlights significant differences between urban, intermediate, and rural areas, with the latter more affected by natural population decline. The findings suggest concerns about demographic sustainability in rural regions and underscore the critical role of migration in shaping population dynamics. Future research will extend the analysis to other European countries and explore the sensitivity of standardization methods.

Keywords: Data and Methods, Comparative methods , Internal Migration and Urbanization, International Migration

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