DECOMPOSING FERTILITY TRENDS BY COHABITATION AND MARRIAGE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Nompumpelelo Nzimande-Mbele, University of Kwazulu-Natal

This study explores the changing role of fertility, marriage, and cohabitation as forms of family formation in South Africa. The three decades preceding 2010 have seen a reduction in marriage rates, rising prevalence of divorce, increases in cohabitation, and increases in the prevalence of non-marital childbearing. This study contributes to the understanding of family formation for women in recent years by documenting recent levels and trends in fertility, marriage, and cohabitation among females in South Africa between 2007 and 2022, while critically exploring the role of each process in family formation. Four nationally representative datasets are explored – the 2007 Community Survey, the Population Census of 2011, Community Survey of 2016, and the Population Census of 2022. The study shows declines in marriage rates and childbearing, and increases in cohabitation rates during the period, although huge variations exist by population group, geographic location, and educational attainment. Study findings confirm that the most prevalent first family formation transition for South African women is increasingly childbirth, and that cohabitation is a union of choice for younger women before the peak of the fertility schedule and a union that includes childbearing as much as marriage.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Fertility, Decomposition analysis

See paper.