The Uncertainty-Fertility Paradox: Examining Material Deprivation, Economic Insecurity, and Contemporary Low Fertility in an Underdeveloped State of India

Kakoli Das, INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES KOLKATA (IDSK))
Saswata Ghosh, Institute of Development Studies Kolkata (IDSK)
Mary Shenk, The Pennsylvania State University

West Bengal (WB), an economically underdeveloped state in India, presents an intriguing case where even the rural fertility rate is 1.6 births per woman, comparable to many developed nations. This paradoxical demographic trend, occurring in the absence of conventional precursors for fertility decline, demands a deeper investigation into its underlying causes and policy implications. This study, thus, investigates the role of material deprivation and economic uncertainty in shaping fertility choices within the contemporary rural society of WB. Using pre-tested structured questionnaires, data were collected from 405 mothers aged 15 to 35 years, along with six focus group discussions with parents. The study highlights that fertility choices in rural West Bengal are rational responses to economic uncertainties and material deprivation, primarily motivated by the aspiration to secure a secured financial future for their offspring. Reasoned-rational deliberations regarding fertility outcomes act as profound motives for having a small family in this area. A similar trend is observed in South Korea, Singapore, and other Southeast Asian countries, where fertility decline is driven more by income effects than by opportunity costs.

Keywords: Fertility, Families, Unions and Households, Mixed methods research, Small area estimation

See paper.