Fertility Gap and Correlates in Turkiye

Mehmet Ali Eryurt, Hacettepe University

According to 2023 birth statistics, Türkiye's total fertility rate declined to 1.51 children per woman, dropping to 1.2 in the three most populous cities. This sharp decline, from 6 children per woman in the mid-1960s, occurred over the past 60 years. Despite declining fertility rates, fertility preferences have increased. The ideal number of children rose from 2.5 in 2008 to 2.8 in 2018. This study examines factors influencing both the actual and ideal number of children, as well as the discrepancies between them, using data from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. The analysis focuses on women aged 40-49, employing Poisson regression to identify factors affecting fertility outcomes (actual and ideal fertility) and binary logistic regression to explore deviations from desired fertility levels. Preliminary results show that 16% of women aged 40-49 in Türkiye have more children than desired, 35% have the desired number, and 49% have fewer children than desired. The study concludes with policy recommendations to support women in achieving their desired family size.

Keywords: Fertility

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