The tradeoff between child quantity and child quality: testing Becker’s Q-Q model and long-terms effects on women using data from Egypt

Hosam Ibrahim, University of Minnesota

Drawing on consumer demand theory, this study examines fertility as a microeconomic decision influenced by household socioeconomic characteristics, focusing on Egypt. This research hypothesizes that increased family size inversely affects child quality and long-term female labor outcomes. Utilizing data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys (ELMPS) over 20 years, the analysis employs a two-stage least square instrumental variable approach, with the number of non-singleton children as an instrument to address endogeneity in fertility decisions. Results suggest no significant effect of family size on child schooling or female employment outcomes, challenging the presence of a child quantity-quality tradeoff in Egypt despite significant socioeconomic transitions. This highlights potential limitations in policies that solely target family planning to improve educational and labor outcomes. The study's findings contribute to the ongoing debate on fertility economics in developing countries, providing insights into the complex interactions between family size, education, and labor market participation, particularly for women in the MENA region.

Keywords: Fertility, Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Older Adults and Intergenerational Relations

See paper.