KINSHIP TRANSITIONS among OLDEST OLD in LATIN AMERICA

Tallyta Martins, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Simone Wajnman, Cedeplar, UFMG
Cassio M. Turra, Demography Department, Cedeplar, UFMG
Eduardo Araujo, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)

This study examines kinship transitions among the oldest old in Latin America, highlighting the rising demand for elderly care as the population aged 80 and older expands rapidly. The region faces challenges due to fragile economies, poverty, and inequality. Personal care for the elderly in Latin America largely falls on family members, making it crucial to analyze the supply of relatives over time. The research employs a time-varying two-sex kinship matrix model to estimate the number of family members to 80-year-olds in Argentina, Brazil, and Bolivia from 1950 to 2100. Preliminary results reveal a significant reduction in the total number of living relatives across all three countries, with a trend towards families of around twenty members. The study emphasizes the need for public policies in Latin America to address the care needs of the elderly, as shrinking family networks may be insufficient for future support. Next steps include examining how changes in fertility and mortality rates separately impact kinship structures. Additionally, the analysis will be expanded to other countries in the region to cover the full diversity of kinship and demographic transitions.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Older Adults and Intergenerational Relations, Population Ageing, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See extended abstract.