Dasymetric Mapping of Baby Boom or Bust: How the Covid-19 Pandemic Reshaped Family Planning Program in Ganga Plains of Uttar Pradesh

Narendra Kumar, HEMVATI NANDAN BAHUGUNA GARHWAL UNIVERSITY (A Central University), Srinagar, Uttarakhand
Asraful Alam, Serampore Girls' College, University of Calcutta
Hitesh Mandal, University Of Delhi
Ritu Singh, MapmyIndia
L.P. Lakhera, HNB Garhwal University, Uttarakhand

Early expectations during the Covid-19 pandemic suggested that lockdowns would lead to a baby boom, with India projected to have 20.1 million births within nine months due to disruptions in contraceptive services. However, the reality has shown a baby bust instead, raising debates among social scientists and policymakers regarding the pandemic’s impact on birth rates. This study aims to analyze the effects of Covid-19 measures on crude birth rates, focusing on data from December to May during the pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and pandemic years (2020-2021) in Uttar Pradesh, India. Additionally, it examines the relationship between family planning disruptions and birth rates to assess whether the pandemic led to a baby boom or bust. The study also seeks to find a causality between the abortion rate during this period with the change in birth rate in Uttar Pradesh. The study gains relevance in light of Uttar Pradesh’s recently passed Population Control, Stabilization, and Welfare Bill. Preliminary findings indicate that while 16% of districts saw a slight baby boom from 2019-20 to 2020-21, 84% of districts experienced a baby bust during the same period, underscoring the broader demographic impact of the pandemic.

Keywords: Fertility, Randomized controlled experiments , Family Planning and Contraception, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See extended abstract.