Fertility and Inequality Dynamics in Mexican Indigenous Communities: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

Roxana Ivette Arana Ovalle, Université de Montréal
Murua Alejandro, Professeur titulaire
Lisa Dillon, Université de Montréal
Francisco Zamudio, Universidad Autónoma Chapingo

This research provides a comprehensive historical analysis of indigenous fertility dynamics in Mexico across three critical temporal phases: pre-transitional (1930), population growth (1970), and advanced transition in progress (2015). We examine the multifaceted associations among socioeconomic-inequality, geographical determinants, and net fertility in married women aged 15-45 years. Our study challenges prevailing narratives by elucidating how high mortality in indigenous communities could delay fertility decline during the population growth phase. We introduce a novel analytical approach using a bivariate normal distribution to explore associations between inequality and net fertility. Spatial analysis techniques uncover correlations between indigenous subpopulation proportions, socioeconomic-inequality, and net fertility between municipalities. Leveraging spatial visualization tools, our findings inform evidence-based policy formulation tailored to indigenous population needs.

Keywords: Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination, The Demography of Indigenous Populations, Spatial Demography, Historical Demography

See paper.