Budgetisation sensitive to the demographic dividend the case of health in Senegal

Mame Sangone Diop, RESEARCH ASSISTANT
Adja Fatou Ba Ndoye, Dr
Ibrahima Mballo, Mr

The health budget has increased significantly, from CFAF 70.35 billion in 2011 to CFAF 236 billion in 2022, with a peak of CFAF 267 billion in 2021. New policies aim to reduce maternal and child mortality through increased access to reproductive health services and control of major diseases. Despite significant progress up to 2023, maternal and child mortality rates remain high, while the burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases is increasing rapidly. This research consists of linking the DDMI to the ‘health’ budget function in order to show the sensitivity of the well-being of players in this sector to variations in the public resources allocated to it. To this end, the BSDD model was used to estimate budget elasticities by type. The results show that a non-targeted allocation of resources to the health sector has no significant impact on the DDMI_santé. On the other hand, changes in transfers and operating and capital expenditure in this sector have a significant impact on the Health DDMI. In fact, a 10% increase in the budget for one of its three categories would result in increases of 2.47%, 3.66% and 5.91% respectively in the Health DDMI.

Keywords: Structural equation modelling , Economic Demography, Health and Morbidity, Econometrics

See extended abstract.