Forecasting Dementia Mortality among Older Adults in Low Mortality Countries

JULIA CALAZANS, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics (CED)
Jeroen Spijker, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics (CED)
Elisenda Renteria, CED, Centre for Demographic Studies
Sergi Trias-Llimós, Center for Demographic Studies (Barcelona)

Evidence on temporal trends in dementia mortality in low-mortality countries remains limited, and there is considerable uncertainty about its trajectory over the coming decades. While most studies point to a continued decline in mortality, others warn of potential increases due to worsening population health and lifestyle factors. This uncertainty highlights the need for further research on national trends in dementia mortality. This study aims to analyze future trends in dementia mortality in 23 low-mortality countries up to 2050, using probabilistic projection methods. The future dementia age-specific mortality rates were projected using the Compositional Data Analysis (CoDa) model, an extension of the Lee-Carter model. Its great advantage is that it ensures consistency between mortality rates due to dementia and total mortality rates in the projections. Preliminary results show a wide diversity in future trends in dementia mortality. Although dementia mortality is expected to increase in most countries studied, Norway, Portugal, France, and Canada are exceptions, showing a projected decline in dementia mortality for both sexes. These findings are essential for guiding public health strategies aimed at reducing the prevalence of dementia and mitigating its increasing impact on older populations.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See extended abstract.