The Nexus of Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in Sudan

Sarah Wahby, University of Minnesota

While there is broad agreement on the existence of a three-way relationship between climate change, migration and conflict, the conditions under which these relationships are realized and the pathways through which they materialize are debated. I study this three-way relationship in the context of Sudan, a country highly vulnerable to climate change and conflict and exhibiting the highest trends of urbanization and internal displacement. I specifically ask 1) How did climate change affect migration patterns of the agriculturalist population in Sudan in the form of urbanization of farmers and sendentarization of pastoralists? 2) Is conflict more likely to erupt in areas receiving mass migration? 3) How much of the effect of climate change on migration is mediated by conflict? To address these questions I use quantitative data analysis and individual and household level data on the history of migration of respondents linked with global gridded temperature and precipitation data and geocoded conflict data. Preliminary results suggest that extreme climate events reduce migration on the short-run.

Keywords: Econometrics , Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Internal Migration and Urbanization, Remote sensing

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