Social Differences in Fertility Transition in Rural Estonia, Birth Cohorts 1820-1879.

Hannaliis Jaadla, Estonian Insitute for Population Studies, Tallinn University
Kersti Lust, Tallinn University
Martin Gortfelder, Tallinn University
Martin Klesment, Tallinn University

Previous research places Estonia among the forerunners of the fertility transition in Europe. This paper will use a novel family reconstitution dataset based on parish registers, “soul revisions” and civil records of migrants for two rural parishes from 1826 to 1926 to study two aspects of fertility change. Our aim is to employ mixture cure regression models to analyse (1) how SES differences in fertility and modes of reduction by SES change over this period; and (2) the contributions of different modes of fertility reduction — delayed starting, earlier stopping, spacing and childlessness — influenced the overall change in the mean number of children.

Keywords: Fertility, Historical Demography

See extended abstract.