Incidence, Predictors and Survival Outcomes of Secondary Transmission of Ebola among Contacts in Central Uganda, 2022

Lubaale A Yovani Moses, Makerere University, Institute of Statistics And Applied Economics,

Background: Ebola disease (EBOD) is a zoonotic, highly fatal viral hemorrhagic fever that has caused 41 outbreaks since its discovery in 1976. Uganda experienced the latest EBOD outbreak in 2022 with 164 cases, case fatality rate of 39%. This study aimed at determining the incidence, predictors and survival outcomes of secondary EBOD transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Uganda. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using surveillance records. Results: 3140 contacts of EBOD were enrolled. 50.6% were female, mean age 24years. Cumulative incidence was 3.67% and incidence rate was 1.6/1000 person days of follow-up. Survival for EBOD diagnosis was between the 10th-28th days after exposure. Incidence of EBOD in secondary transmission setting was 1.8times as in primary transmission setting.. The overall survival probability was 0.62. After adjusting for age and sex, odds of survival for secondary cases were five times as those for primary cases and survival for males were twice as female. Conclusion: This study provides evidence to consider increasing rigorous intervention and follow-up period for contacts to 28 days monitoring high risk contacts. Surveillance should be strengthened for early detection of outbreaks to improve survival for primary cases

Keywords: Health and Morbidity

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