Dakar in 2050: How Do Public Policy Decisions Define a Future of Vulnerability to Flooding?

Attoumane Artadji, Laboratoire Population Environnement Développement (LPED), IRD, AMU
Stéphanie Dos Santos, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
Papa Gueye Sow, Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis (Sénégal) & Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
Anastasie Mendy, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar
Cheikh Samba Wade, Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, (Sénégal)

Dakar, the economic capital of Senegal, has experienced recurrent flooding over the last ten years. In addition to intense rainfall, the rapid urbanization of large cities in West African countries has been identified as a major flooding issue. This study seeks to demonstrate that political choices, in particular urbanization master plans, shape urban trajectories and thus accentuate vulnerability to flooding in the Dakar region. To this end, multispectral satellite images from 2001, 2011 and 2021 were used to produce land use and land cover maps, validated by gps field points. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) program of the TerrSet2020 software was used to produce scenarios of land cover land use change in Dakar Region by 2050. The urbanization growth constraints defined in the 2016 urbanization master plan were considered in the final scenario, enabling a comparison with unconstrained scenarios. The results show that by taking political constraints into account, the Dakar Region's urbanization trajectory will not only safeguard natural spaces, but also avoid the occupation of territories vulnerable to flooding. The development of sustainable urbanization is a guarantee of reduced climatic and environmental risks, a choice that must be made by political decision-makers.

Keywords: Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote sensing, Spatial Demography, Population, Environment, and Climate Change

See extended abstract.