The Demography of Crisis-Driven Outflows from Venezuela

jenny garcia, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

The Venezuelan exodus represents the largest known displacement of people in recent Latin American history. Migrants are not a random sample of the population, and migration patterns by age and gender are dynamic, particularly amidst a wider crisis. This study examines the demographics of recent outflows from Venezuela, the chronology of associated changes, and the demographic implications for those remaining in the country. Official counts of Venezuelan-born populations compiled in seven main destinations are used to estimate annual outflows by age and gender from 2011 to 2020. Changes in the demographic composition of emigration are traced using parameters of the Rogers–Castro model, specifically the children-to-labor force dominance, and by decomposing the age contributions to the annual gross migraproduction rate. In the early phase of the crisis (2014–2017), emigration flows had high child dependency ratios. As the crisis entered its most acute phase (peaking in 2019), the mean age of migrants increased. Outward migration has resulted in the current Venezuelan population having 20% fewer women of reproductive age and 17.8% fewer individuals of working age. Consequently, the share of the population aged 60 or older has increased.

Keywords: Data and Methods, International Migration, Migrant Populations and Refugees, Population, Shocks and Pandemics

See paper.